I saw this posted on the CLC forum but the poster did not remember the source. If someone knows where this came from I would like to provide credit for it.
Regardless, I thought I would post here to the 63/64 site as I have mused about some of these future predictions from time to time:
> Subject: Very
> Interesting Predictions
> Really is food for
> scary too....Young folks should
> pick careers
> The Future
> Auto repair shops will
> go away.
> A gasoline engine has
> 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20.
> Electric cars are sold with lifetime
> guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only
> 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty
> electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are
> sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with
> robots. Your electric motor
> malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks
> like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while
> you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new
> electric motor!
> Gas stations will go
> away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that
> dispense electricity. Companies
> will install electrical recharging stations; in fact,
> they’ve already started. You can find them at select
> Dunkin Donuts locations.
> Most (the smart) major
> auto manufacturers have already designated money to start
> building new plants that
> only build electric cars.
> Coal industries will
> go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for
> oil will stop. So say goodbye
> to OPEC!
> Homes will produce and
> store more electrical energy during the day than they
> use and will sell it back to
> the grid. The grid stores it and disperses it to industries
> that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla
> A baby of today will
> only see personal cars in museums.
> The FUTURE is
> approaching faster than most of us can
> In 1998, Kodak had
> 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
> Within just a few years, their
> business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who
> would have thought of that ever
> What happened to Kodak
> will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years
> and, most people don't see
> it coming.
> Did you think in 1998
> that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film
> again? With today’s smart
> phones, who even has a camera these
> Yet digital cameras
> were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000
> pixels, but followed Moore's law.
> So as with all exponential technologies, it was a
> disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and
> became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now
> happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence,
> health, autonomous and electric
> cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and
> Forget the book,
> “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial
> Software has
> disrupted, ... and will continue to disrupt most traditional
> industries in the next 5-10 years.
> UBER is just a
> software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
> biggest taxi company in the world!
> Ask any taxi driver if
> they saw that coming.
> Air BnB is now the
> biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't
> own any properties.
> Ask Hilton Hotels if
> they saw that coming.
> Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
> understanding the world.
> This year, a computer
> beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than
> In the USA, young
> lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's
> Watson, you can get legal advice (so far
> for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90%
> accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So,
> if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer
> lawyers in the future, (what a thought!) only omniscient
> specialists will remain.
> Watson already helps
> in diagnosing cancer, it's 4 times more accurate than
> human nurses.
> Facebook now has
> pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better
> than humans. By 2030, computers
> will become more intelligent than
> Autonomous cars: In
> 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the
> next 2 years, this entire industry
> will begin to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car
> anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show
> up at your location and drive you to your destination. You
> will not need to park it ... you will only pay for the
> driven distance and you can
> be productive while driving. Very young children of
> today will never get a driver's license and will never
> own a car.
> This should change our
> cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can
> transform former parking spaces
> into parks.
> 1.2 million people die
> each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or
> drunk driving. We now
> have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous
> driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles.
> That will save a million lives plus worldwide each
> Most traditional car
> companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car
> companies will try the evolutionary
> approach and just build a better car, while tech companies
> (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach
> and build a computer on wheels.
> Look at what Volvo is
> doing right now; no more internal combustion engines in
> their vehicles starting this
> year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid
> only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid
> Many engineers from
> Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and
> so they should be. Look at
> all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was
> unheard of, only a few years ago.
> Insurance companies
> will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the
> costs will become cheaper. Their
> car insurance business model will
> Real estate will
> change. Because if you can work while you commute, people
> will move farther away to live
> in a more beautiful or affordable
> Electric cars will
> become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy
> because all new cars will run on
> Cities will have much
> cleaner air as well. (Can we start in Los Angeles,
> Electricity will
> become incredibly cheap and clean.
> Solar production has
> been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now
> see the burgeoning impact.
> And it’s just
> getting ramped up.
> Fossil energy
> companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid
> to prevent competition from home
> solar installations, but that simply cannot continue -
> technology will take care of that
> Health: The Tricorder
> X price will be announced this year. There are companies who
> will build a medical device
> (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that
> works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your
> blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54
> bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are
> dozens of phone apps out there right
> now for health purposes.
> WELCOME TO TOMORROW
> – it actually arrived a few years
But, will we ever understand a woman and what goes on in her noggin.
Or perhaps wait for the sun to come out and pop out the solar charger! There has been some good discussion on automated and electric vehicles on the CLC forums.
Here's a couple of my posts:
"The autonomous car section is spot on and will do the most to unnerve us car guys and gals. This is where the techy in me is at odds with the old car guy in me! Driverless, Uber-like transportation that whisks us to the front door (or unloading dock) of our destination and the huge amount of real estate it will free up since we do not need the huge parking lots is coming, … which will probably relegate driving our old Cadillacs to designated car parks. Things like this can happen sooner than later, but is hard to predict how fast it will happen. There was a quote from someone around 1910 in New York City as I recall, that said this horseless carriage thing would never catch on. I will have to find the actual quote. "
I am an engineer at GM and work on our future EVs and AVs. Yes, pretty exciting new technology but I'm not concerned about the future.
My opinion: This will be a gradual transition and the solution will be a mix of technologies (ICE, EV, AV....). I believe that while the EV/AV technology is more revolutionary, the buying public's response will be evolutionary. In the end, the OEMs will build what sells. Densely populated cities will see an increase in EV sales. In those same areas you will see some AVs but in a more controlled environment (maybe geofenced). For people living in rural areas, the change will be slower to come and will require more advances in technology to allow for longer range, more weather capabilities, trailering capability, faster charging for cross country trips, etc. I think of this as an addition to our current technology which opens up some additional engineering challenges and opportunities, but we still need most of the same engineering and other disciplines we do today. The big difference in EVs is the propulsion system but I still need structure, steering, HVAC, brakes, entertainment systems, nav, etc. For AVs you still need everything previously mentioned plus you need an entirely new sensing and controls system. These are the new high-tech jobs but many of the low tech ones are still needed for the rest of the vehicle.
Should we worry that we can't drive our ICEs on the roads anymore in the future - I'm not. Oh, it may cost a bit more and maybe I can't drive in a few areas I used to be able too but I'm not worried the hobby will go away.
This future predictions are a Real Eye opener to me and the changes coming are interesting for sure
These are real life changing experiences we are in for and many of the future predictions will remain just that and not come to pass
You might remmember some prior ones ( Jetsons - moving side walks etc)
At 74 you do not think about the future as much as others but enjoying the time you have left is the key what ever that may be
I do very much enjoy driving my car so why would i want a car that drives itself ?
Reducing driving death is a great idea
We may actually be able to save the earth and have future generations look foward to a healther life on this planet
Electric cars should improve air quality big time especially in the cities
After all we forget we are on a planet spinning somewhere --in outter space -- SO WHAT COULD GO WRONG ???